Mauricio_B

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.088915
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? 0.0074
    Jan 1, 2025 05:00AM By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? 0.007464
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? 0.003402
    Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? -0.093091
    Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia? 0.257867
    Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? 0.63487
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.031547
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.314229
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.176197
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? 0.235241
    Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? 0.403818
    Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024) 0.0
    Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? -0.000029
    Feb 2, 2024 10:00PM When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? 0.14319
    Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? 0.031269
    Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? 0.033382
    Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined? 0.278401
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan? -0.00001
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen? 0.0
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