I think it will be really difficult for China to end its strict zero Covid policy by next month - the health care system is too weak at this point to roll out an effective vaccination campaign. As much as the policy is hurting the economy, I don't think the country is equipped to steer a change this quickly.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think it will be highly unlikely for China to be prepared to loosen its zero Covid policy on such a short timeline. I do expect it to end sometime in the future, as public fury against the authorities' excessive measures to contain Covid is rising.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
I think there is a good chance that North Korea could conduct a nuclear test by March 2023 because the country prizes on its use of nuclear deterrent for self-defense. I'm also going off of sources that speak to the country "digging a shortcut to Tunnel 3 at its previously closed nuclear test site in Punggye-ri." (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/north-korea-may-be-preparing-for-nuclear-test-soon-report)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's hard to predict exactly when North Korea would conduct another nuclear test. It might not be as soon as we are estimating here.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
Yes
United Airlines appears to be dedicated in its use of SAFs (https://crreport.united.com/environmental-sustainability/emissions-reduction-sustainable-fuel-and-innovation). I think their partnership is also grounded in mutually beneficial and profitable conditions as well (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/turning-carbon-dioxide-into-sustainable-fuel-united-and-oxy-low-carbon-ventures-announce-collaboration-with-biotech-firm-to-create-new-fuel-sources-301512378.html). United Airlines also appears to have a consistent track record of partnering with companies like Cemvita.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
China
0%
EU
70%
United States
16%
India
0%
None of the above
Following current trends
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2022 03:42AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Nov 1, 2022 to Dec 1, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
I highly doubt that Russia will engage in actual testing/using of nuclear weapons by next month. I will err on the side that Russia sees the use of nuclear weapons as a "deterrent to guarantee its national security" rather than a confident source to engage. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60564123
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's always a slight possibility that Russia may employ one of its 5,997 nuclear warheads, despite international consequences, judging how it did launch war against Ukraine. The risk is still too high, however.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(+5%)
Intel
46%
(0%)
Samsung
9%
(-5%)
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
3%
(0%)
Other
Why do you think you're right?
As of 2022, I think that it is highly likely that Samsung will take the lead in terms of amassing sales revenue. I think a large part of its success has to do with its cut-throat commitment to innovation, reflected by its investment in research and development.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think it's highly likely that either Intel or Samsung will continue to take the lead for the remaining next months in 2022 but TSMC or SK Hynix can unexpectedly take the lead as well, it's hard to say.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
27%
(0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
21%
(0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
12%
(0%)
Not before 1Q 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
From the U.S. intelligence side, there doesn't seem to be practical evidence to be confident in Putin's move to use nuclear weapons immediately in the next month. I am a bit skeptical whether it will be this quickly.
Why might you be wrong?
It's hard to be confident on either side when betting whether Russia will be bold enough to use a nuclear weapon. Even officials seem to have a hard time discerning whether he's just bluffing or not.