RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?	-0.288194
May 31, 2022 03:08PM	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	-0.136217
Apr 1, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	0.306495
Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.078389
Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?	0.000597
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	-0.004804
Jan 4, 2022 01:19PM	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	0.500195
Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	-0.010745
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?	0.067074
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	0.1762
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	-0.06605
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.055184
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	0.092163
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	0.276659
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?	0.190385