The number of publications has risen in 10 of the last 12 years. Since the number is currently just above 3000, I would expect by trend extrapolation that it would be higher.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Less than 2,500
22%
More than or equal to 2,500 but less than 3,000
66%
More than or equal to 3,000
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Why might you be wrong?
The "Estimate 2022 Value" forecast puts the value at about 2100. I don't know why. Presumably this is the mean of the series, but I could be wrong and they have additional information about the current publication atmosphere that I lack.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 26, 2022 11:19PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-3%)
Yes
May 26, 2022 to Nov 26, 2022
Agreeing with crowd that there is no desire to rock the boat so to speak.
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Why do you think you're right?
Xi Jinping has successfully driven out viable alternatives and shows no sign of wanting to step down.
Why might you be wrong?
Economic instability due to Xi's zero-COVID policies may weaken his case for leadership.