JamesB

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New Prediction
JamesB
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Less than $30 million
24% (-56%)
More than or equal to $30 million but less than $45 million
39% (+24%)
More than or equal to $45 million but less than $60 million
32% (+32%)
More than or equal to $60 million but less than $75 million
0% (0%)
More than or equal to $75 million

Have been motivated to push it up reading other commenters talking about recent acquisitions.

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earned a new badge:

My First Question

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JamesB
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New Prediction
JamesB
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than $30 million
80%
More than or equal to $30 million but less than $45 million
15%
More than or equal to $45 million but less than $60 million
0%
More than or equal to $60 million but less than $75 million
0%
More than or equal to $75 million
Why do you think you're right?

In 3 of the last 4 quarters the foundry portion of Ginkgo has reported revenues in the 30-45 million bracket. The one quarter (Q1 2022) that did report lower earnings (21 million) was due to programs that had just started up and hadn't reached capacity at the time.

Given the current economic crisis it makes sense to bet that their revenues will be lower. However, in the most recent earnings season, Ginkgo was one of a minority of companies that didn't reduce full-year 2022 revenue and earning guidance. This suggests they feel strongly about their ability to weather the crisis. These two effects together, essentially negating one another, suggest more stability in earnings.

Their actual projections for this year suggest an increase in revenues (~55 million) from the Foundry so I have included them in the prediction. However, given that we haven't seen the worst of the crisis I am treating them as optimistic.

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Why might you be wrong?

I'm not that familiar with the industry that Ginkgo operates in. Although I do know that biotech in general has seen a boom in recent years (particularly in funding) I will likely do more research on how the industry as a whole has responded to previous financial crises (in particular 2008 when Ginkgo was around) for my next predictions.

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