General Min Aung Hlaing has announced that national elections in Myanmar, initially expected much earlier, are now likely to be postponed until December 2025 or possibly January 2026. The delay adds to ongoing concerns about the country’s political trajectory following the 2021 military coup. (https://www.vaticannews.va/es/mundo/news/2025-03/myanmar-el-desafio-de-las-elecciones-entre-la-guerra-civil-y-un.html)
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Elections could potentially be held only in areas under military control, a scenario that would exclude a significant portion of the country’s native population
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Argentina
15%
(0%)
Bolivia
11%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-30%)
Argentina
15%
(-5%)
Bolivia
11%
(-19%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Argentina: According to many economic experts, there is a positive outlook regarding Argentina's economy for 2025, considering the strategies implemented by its president, which have had a significant impact on the nation's macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, it has the support of the IMF and the United States, so it is expected to avoid default (https://www.kreston.com/article/argentinas-2025-debt-crisis/)
Ecuador: In the case of Ecuador, it has recorded 10 consecutive years of significant fiscal deficits, mostly due to the payment of public sector salaries. No news has been found regarding a reduction in its main source of current expenditures, which suggests that this trend will continue, potentially leading to a default in debt payments. (https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/negocios/cuanto-debera-pagar-ecuador-deuda-externa-interna-2025.html)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
These countries may have some plans to make their debt payments that have not yet been made public at this time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+4%)
Yes
95%
(-4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
"Even though the news states, 'It is the first time a specific timeframe has been mentioned by the junta for the holding of polls,' (https://efe.com/en/other-news/2025-03-08/myanmars-election/) this might just be another attempt to appease the international community. Their intentions, however, may not align with what they claim.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Argentina
20%
(0%)
Bolivia
30%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
For Argentina: - President Javier Milei recently took an emergency loan from the IMF, deepening the country’s debt exposure. (https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2025/03/10/javier-milei-argentina-imf-debt-trap-loan/)
For Ecuador: Bolivia hasn’t defaulted since the 1980s, and Fitch Ratings recently stated that default is “improbable” in 2025 (https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2025/03/19/21824-bolivia-corre-el-riesgo-de-default-analistas-creen-que-se-cumplira-el-pago-de-la-deuda-externa-pero-habra-dificultades)
Why might you be wrong?
Amid growing speculation over a potential conflict between the United States and Iran, several Latin American economies (including those examined in this question) could face significant disruptions as a result of increased geopolitical volatility.