Forecasted Questions
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(26 days from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 1, 2024 02:29AM
(9 months ago)
Dec 1, 2024 02:29AM
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 10% | 5% | +5% | -10% |
| Bolivia | 60% | 5% | +55% | -15% |
| Ecuador | 10% | 4% | +6% | -7% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(26 days from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2024 11:14PM
(8 months ago)
Dec 30, 2024 11:14PM
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 40% | 1% | +39% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 30% | 6% | +24% | +2% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 20% | 65% | -45% | +41% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 10% | 23% | -13% | -26% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 0% | 4% | -4% | -16% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2025 06:09PM
(6 months ago)
Feb 25, 2025 06:09PM
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 8% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 92% | +3% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2025 11:43PM
(4 months ago)
Apr 30, 2025 11:43PM
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 10% | 65% | -55% | +2% |
| 30 days | 10% | 6% | +4% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 20% | 6% | +14% | -1% |
| 61-90 days | 30% | 5% | +25% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 30% | 17% | +13% | +3% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 1, 2025 03:51AM
(3 months ago)
Jun 1, 2025 03:51AM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2025 12:57PM
(5 days ago)
Aug 31, 2025 12:57PM
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +0% |