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Forecasted Questions

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2023 02:10AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 13%
No 50% 87%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 22, 2023 11:30PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 20% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 20% 11%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2024 11:55AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Feb 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025 May 27, 2024 14%
No 95% Feb 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025 May 27, 2024 86%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 09:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 8%
No 95% 92%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 1%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%
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