Forecasted Questions
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 1, 2024 02:29AM
(8 months ago)
Dec 1, 2024 02:29AM
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 10% | 7% | +3% | -8% |
| Bolivia | 60% | 9% | +51% | -11% |
| Ecuador | 10% | 6% | +4% | -5% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2024 11:14PM
(7 months ago)
Dec 30, 2024 11:14PM
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 40% | 1% | +39% | 0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 30% | 9% | +21% | +4% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 20% | 52% | -32% | +27% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 10% | 32% | -22% | -16% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 0% | 6% | -6% | -15% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2025 06:09PM
(5 months ago)
Feb 25, 2025 06:09PM
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 7% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 93% | +2% | +1% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2025 11:43PM
(3 months ago)
Apr 30, 2025 11:43PM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 10% | 65% | -55% | +2% |
| 30 days | 10% | 8% | +2% | -2% |
| 31-60 days | 20% | 7% | +13% | -1% |
| 61-90 days | 30% | 5% | +25% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 30% | 14% | +16% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 1, 2025 03:51AM
(2 months ago)
Jun 1, 2025 03:51AM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 1, 2025 04:00AM
(24 days from now)
Sep 1, 2025 04:00AM
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 02:54AM
(8 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 02:54AM
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 600 | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Between 600 and 629, inclusive | 0% | 12% | -12% | +0% |
| Between 630 and 659, inclusive | 21% | 23% | -2% | -2% |
| Between 660 and 689, inclusive | 59% | 27% | +32% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 690 | 20% | 35% | -15% | +1% |