Forecasted Questions
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2023 02:10AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 28, 2023 02:10AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 50% | 13% | +37% | -36% |
No | 50% | 87% | -37% | +36% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 22, 2023 11:30PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Dec 22, 2023 11:30PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 20% | 9% | +11% | +1% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 20% | 11% | +9% | -11% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2024 11:55AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Feb 27, 2024 11:55AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Feb 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025 | May 27, 2024 | 14% | -9% | +10% |
No | 95% | Feb 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025 | May 27, 2024 | 86% | +9% | -10% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 09:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 29, 2024 09:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | 8% | -3% | +0% |
No | 95% | 92% | +3% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |