According to recent polling, the Brothers of Italy are poised to win elections outright. after Mario Draghi’s resignation as prime minister. They're currently leading opposition parties in most polling. With fractured liberal parties and support from former PM Silvio Berlusconi, a united right-wing coalition is in good position to win September's snap elections.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
53%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A coalition of the Democratic Party and M5S could give the Democratic party a plurality of the votes. Infighting between Meloni and Salvini could also snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
An attack on NATO would lead to a potential nuclear extinction-level event. NATO has been consistent that they will defend every inch of NATO territory and 2 dozen Russian caused fatalities will cause WWIII.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Anything can happen in a war. It's unlikely but possible. The Wagner group or other Russia-aligned mercenaries might fire on NATO positions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Europe is considering the 7th round of sanctions, but cloud services are not part of the proposed packages. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-11/ukraine-latest-russian-gas-shipments-to-germany-due-to-stop#xj4y7vzkg
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Yes
Barring a complete collapse in Russia society, or the degradation of Putin's health, his popularity and total control of russia seem unaffected in a macro sense at home.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+5%)
Yes
Unless he dies, he's President for Life.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(0%)
Intel
32%
(0%)
Samsung
35%
(0%)
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
0%
(0%)
Other
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 13, 2022 03:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-40%)
Yes
Jul 13, 2022 to Aug 13, 2022
There's no evidence that his internal approval rating will suffer despite the war in Ukraine. His power is unchecked and his popularity at home is solid.
Files
US investments for AI have steeply declined since Q1. I don't see anything turning that around anytime soon. That's on top of demand itself stagnating.
https://oecd.ai/en/data?selectedArea=investments-in-ai&selectedVisualization=vc-investments-in-ai-by-country