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Relative Brier Score
6
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0
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+4%)
Yes
95%
(-4%)
No
crowd forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
"The military is clearly facing significant manpower shortages, which is why it is introducing a draft for the first time in its history," said Richard Horsey, the Crisis Group's senior Myanmar adviser.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 26, 2024 04:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Jan 26, 2024 to Jul 26, 2024
I would say impossible
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