How it works:

Step

You submit a forecasting question you’d like to see published on INFER-pub (read the guidance for question submissions).

Step

You, admins, and other forecasters collaborate and iterate on the question details to make sure it's well formed and includes answer options for all possible outcomes.

Step

Forecasters vote on suggested questions to surface topics that are of most interest to the community.

Step

An admin will make a final decision and publish the best questions for forecasting.

Pending Published Archived
Pinned Question Votes Question Author Status Submitted
/ Last Edited
Pinned Question
1
How likely is Ukraine to get back their military combatants and citizens who've been captured and put through the filtration camps and are now in penal camps or resettled in the Russian Far East by the end of the conflict?
daddyxi
Open 05/19/22 05:05pm 05/19/22 05:15pm
Pinned Question
0
How much percentage increases expected in buying second citizenship of American nationals at the end of December 2022?
Himanshu
Open 05/17/22 04:06pm 05/17/22 04:06pm
Pinned Question
1
will china annex Taiwan
urbansanyasi
Open 05/16/22 11:37am 05/19/22 05:05pm
Pinned Question
1
The US and India will sign major defense, business, and technology treaties by August 31, 2023.
Hesh
Open 05/08/22 01:37am 05/19/22 05:06pm
Pinned Question
2
Will nuclear or chemical weapons be used in the Russia/Ukraine conflict until Jannuary 2023?
VitorMoura
Open 04/25/22 02:44pm 05/19/22 05:06pm
Pinned Question
-3
What is the % risk of WW3 starting in the next 6 months?
pschroeder
Open 04/19/22 09:32am 05/19/22 05:06pm
Pinned Question
0
(Opinion poll, no Brier scoring possible; INFER please suggest other scoring mechanism? I still want aggregated probability tracked, not just discussion.) If Russia explodes a thermonuclear device in Ukraine on before 01MAY22, will the United States or any other nuclear-capable EU nation explode a thermonuclear device in Russia as an immediate response?
000
Open 03/28/22 12:38am 05/19/22 05:06pm
Pinned Question
1
Will Ukraine take back Russian occupied territory in Donbas, Luhansk, Crimea or newly occupied coastal areas on the Sea of Azov on or before 01MAR22?
000
Open 03/28/22 12:29am 05/19/22 05:06pm
Pinned Question
1
Will NATO and/or EU countries take direct military action (boots on the ground or air offense/defense) in Ukraine on or before 01MAY22?
000
Open 03/28/22 12:27am 04/29/22 04:21pm
Pinned Question
1
Will the US military take direct military action (boots on the ground or air offense/defense) in Ukraine on or before 01MAY22?
000
Open 03/28/22 12:27am 04/29/22 04:21pm
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