How it works:

Step

You submit a forecasting question you’d like to see published on INFER-pub (read the guidance for question submissions).

Step

You, admins, and other forecasters collaborate and iterate on the question details to make sure it's well formed and includes answer options for all possible outcomes.

Step

Forecasters vote on suggested questions to surface topics that are of most interest to the community.

Step

An admin will make a final decision and publish the best questions for forecasting.

Pending Published Archived
Pinned Question Votes Question Author Status Submitted
/ Last Edited
Pinned Question
0
The US and India will sign major defense, business, and technology treaties by August 31, 2023.
Hesh
Open 05/08/22 01:37am 05/08/22 01:37am
Pinned Question
1
Will nuclear or chemical weapons be used in the Russia/Ukraine conflict until Jannuary 2023?
VitorMoura
Open 04/25/22 02:44pm 05/15/22 09:15pm
Pinned Question
-2
What is the % risk of WW3 starting in the next 6 months?
pschroeder
Open 04/19/22 09:32am 05/15/22 09:15pm
Pinned Question
1
(Opinion poll, no Brier scoring possible; INFER please suggest other scoring mechanism? I still want aggregated probability tracked, not just discussion.) If Russia explodes a thermonuclear device in Ukraine on before 01MAY22, will the United States or any other nuclear-capable EU nation explode a thermonuclear device in Russia as an immediate response?
000
Open 03/28/22 12:38am 05/15/22 09:23pm
Pinned Question
2
Will Ukraine take back Russian occupied territory in Donbas, Luhansk, Crimea or newly occupied coastal areas on the Sea of Azov on or before 01MAR22?
000
Open 03/28/22 12:29am 04/29/22 04:21pm
Pinned Question
1
Will NATO and/or EU countries take direct military action (boots on the ground or air offense/defense) in Ukraine on or before 01MAY22?
000
Open 03/28/22 12:27am 04/29/22 04:21pm
Pinned Question
1
Will the US military take direct military action (boots on the ground or air offense/defense) in Ukraine on or before 01MAY22?
000
Open 03/28/22 12:27am 04/29/22 04:21pm
Pinned Question
1
Will Russia explode a thermonuclear device in Ukraine on or before 01MAY22?
000
Open 03/27/22 11:57pm 04/29/22 04:21pm
Pinned Question
2
Will Russia explode a chemical warfare device in Ukraine on or before 01MAY22?
000
Open 03/27/22 11:57pm 04/29/22 04:21pm
Pinned Question
1
Will Russia explode a biological warfare device in Ukraine on or before 01MAY22?
000
Open 03/27/22 11:56pm 04/29/22 04:21pm
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