Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?

Started Dec 23, 2020 02:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC

Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."

The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.

***

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Resolution Notes

NVIDIA and SoftBank Group have announced that the acquisition deal between NVIDIA and Arm Limited has been terminated due to "significant regulatory challenges." Instead SoftBank will instead pursue a public offering for Arm by March 31, 2023.

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-and-softbank-group-announce-termination-of-nvidias-acquisition-of-arm-limited

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 27.27%
No 72.73%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 141
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 466
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.309
2.
-0.273
3.
-0.256
4.
-0.205
5.
-0.205

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username