What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Started Jan 06, 2021 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.

Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security." 

Through April 17, 2021, the value for 2021 H1 is 0.56%. 

The graph is linked directly to data from the vendor. Values on the graph can change if the vendor updates the data in ways that impact past data points. The data underlying the graph on the date the question was published is here. If the data changes to a non-trivial extent, we will notify forecasters and add a new snapshot of the data to the spreadsheet to make it easier to view the changes. 

This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:

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Question clarification
Issued on 04/18/21 12:09am
Through April 17, 2021, the value for 2021 H1 is 0.56%.
Resolution Notes

The answer is 0.56%.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 0.45% 6%
Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive 18%
More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95% 32%
More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2% 21%
More than 1.2% 23%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 81
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 189
Average for questions older than 6 months: 192
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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