What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?

Started Feb 24, 2021 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The mean forecast for the first half of 2021 was $551 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.

Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations.

Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $470 billion 2%
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive 6%
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion 16%
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion 32%
More than $680 billion 43%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 255
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Consensus Trend

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