What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?

Started Mar 12, 2021 02:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.

A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here

Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.

Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for fiscal year 2022. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. 

Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals. 

 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Question clarification
Issued on 04/22/21 02:21pm
Previously this question stated that it would resolve based on EITHER FY 2022 data OR monthly data through September 2022, whichever came first. It's been modified to resolve based ONLY on FY 2022 data. Due to a methodological change in FY 2020 monthly data should not be aggregated (h/t RyanBeck).
Resolution Notes

Chinese nationals received 592 of 36,922 total O visas issued in 2022, or 1.6%.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2022AnnualReport/FY22_TableXVI.pdf

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3% 28%
Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive 37%
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% 26%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5% 6%
More than 7.5% 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 225
Average for questions older than 6 months: 213
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.313257
2.
-0.205717
4.
-0.198203
5.
-0.178283

Consensus Trend

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