Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?

Started Apr 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC
Seasons

Russia announced plans to launch its Luna 25 lunar lander mission in Jul 2023, delayed from Sep 2022 (Space, TASS). Luna 25 would be the first mission of Russia's larger Luna Glob moon exploration program, intended to make progress towards a fully robotic lunar base. The lander is targeted to the south polar region of the moon (NASA). Russia has not successfully landed on the moon in over 45 years, with the most recent landing being the Luna 24 mission in 1976. Recent news of Luna 25's prospects has been mixed (The Space Review).

Resolution Criteria
This question resolves based on reporting from reputable news outlets. A "successful launch" includes both launching and landing safely on the moon. If a launch occurs, we will wait to resolve the question until the mission makes a landing; scoring will be based on the launch date, not the moon landing date. For example, if a mission launches on 1 Sep 2023 and lands on the moon days later past the end date of this question, we will resolve as "Yes". 


Question clarification
Issued on 08/03/23 05:21pm
Minor damage to a spacecraft or other small problems that occur during its flight or landing would not necessarily prevent the question from being resolved as "Yes". A crash landing, or other event that results in catastrophic damage to the craft, would result in the question resolving as "No".
Resolution Notes

Russia's moon mission has failed, as the Luna-25 spacecraft crashed into the moon on 20 August 2023.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russias-moon-mission-falters-after-problem-entering-pre-landing-orbit-2023-08-20/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 12.03%
No 87.97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 177
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 783
Average for questions older than 6 months: 212
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.009555
2.
-0.009542
3.
-0.009436
4.
-0.009399
5.
-0.009288

Consensus Trend

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