Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility in the next 6 months?

Started Jul 20, 2023 07:00PM UTC

Despite international efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program, concerns remain that both the level of enrichment and the amount of stockpiled fissile material lay the groundwork for development of a nuclear weapon (VOA, Fox). Israel is vehemently opposed to Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon and has threatened military action to forestall that outcome (United States Institute for Peace, Reuters). Although Israel has said that no attack is imminent (Reuters), they have also emphasized their ability to strike at facilities deep within Iran (AP News). 

Resolution Criteria:
Reputable open source media will be used to assess whether a nuclear facility was attacked. Cyber attacks will count (e.g., Stuxnet), as will attacks described as sabotage (e.g., April 2021 Natanz attack). The perpetrator of the attack does not need to be named or confirmed, but open source media should describe the event as an attack, not as an accident.

Additional Reading:
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