Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

Started Oct 22, 2020 04:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 06, 2021 04:59AM UTC
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Seasons

Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here

Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. 

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Question clarification
Issued on 06/01/21 12:54pm
To resolve positively, the lawsuit must be brought the federal government, e.g., the U.S. Attorney General or Federal Trade Commission. A lawsuit brought by a state or the District of Columbia does not count.
Issued on 06/15/21 02:36pm
This question states that "a lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914." A lawsuit brought under a new U.S. (federal law) antirust Act also qualifies, provided that Act incorporates the enforcement powers of the Sherman Act, Clayton Act, or Federal Trade Commission Act. Four of the five antitrust-related bills under consideration would qualify. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/amazon-apple-facebook-and-google-targeted-in-bipartisan-antitrust-reform-bills.html. The Ending Platform Monopolies Act, American Choice and Innovation Online Act, and Platform Competition and Opportunity Act would qualify because they all contain the following enforcement provision: "The Commission and the Department of Justice shall enforce this Act in the same manner, by the same means, and with the same jurisdiction, powers, and duties as though all applicable terms and provisions of the Federal Trade Commission Act (15 U.S.C. 16 41 et seq.) or the Clayton Act (15 U.S.C. 12 et seq.), as appropriate, were incorporated into and made a part of this Act." The Merger Filing Fee Modernization Act would qualify because it, if enacted, would become a part of the Clayton Act. The Augmenting Compatibility and Competition by Enabling Service Switching Act would not qualify.
Issued on 08/10/21 05:18pm
For this question, the date a lawsuit is filed is the date the original complaint is filed. The FTC's lawsuit against Facebook under the Clayton Act would qualify for this question, except that it was filed in December 2020. The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia has given the FTC until August 19 to file an amended complaint. https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-ftc-asks-more-time-file-amended-complaint-facebook-case-2021-07-23/. The fact of an amended complaint will not render this lawsuit one filed during this question's forecast period: January 20, 2021 to January 19, 2025.
Resolution Notes

On 26 September 2023, the Federal Trade Commission filed an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon under the Federal Trade Commission Act and Sherman Act (FTC, Amazon).

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 79.55%
No 20.45%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 211
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 729
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.11869
2.
-0.108757
3.
-0.094715
4.
-0.094275
5.
-0.091891

Consensus Trend

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