New question release: AI patents in U.S. and China, and AI scientific publications in the EU

Zev Burton
Jun 13, 2022 05:08PM UTC
INFER just launched three new questions within the topic, International Competitiveness in AI (see how we decomposed this topic to develop each forecast question here):

How many AI-related patents will be published in China in 2022? +
How many AI-related patents will be published in the United States in 2022?

This week, we will be asking about patents for both the U.S. and China, as we view patents as a measure of commercially successful innovation. Since the inception of AI in 1956, innovators and researchers worldwide have filed patent applications for nearly 340,000 AI-related inventions. With more access to data and greater computer power bringing an AI patent boom, countries have realized that filing patents play a crucial role in winning the AI race and bolstering economic development. In 2020, the U.S. filed over 17,000 patents and China filed over 2,000; however, both countries saw patents decrease by nearly half those figures in 2021. This question will help to track whether innovation in these two countries will continue its trend downward or rise back up to, or surpass, previous levels of output. 

How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?

Scientific publications are vital to measuring thought leadership on a particular issue. While East Asia has consistently led global output in AI journal publications, producing over a third of all publications, the EU produced roughly 13% of that output from 2000 to 2020. This proportion of EU contribution has continued as AI-related publications represent just under 4% of all peer-reviewed scientific publications worldwide. Top producers of AI research in the EU are the National Institute for Research in Digital Science and Technology, ETH Zurich, and EPFL. The number of AI publications from EU institutions has been consistently rising since the 1990s. This question will help us monitor whether that trend will continue in 2022.

These are just three of the forecasting questions we have released on the topic, International Competitiveness in AI. Make sure to check out the other questions in this topic area. 

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