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New question release: AI patents, skill demand, and Chinese publications

May 13, 2022 08:42PM UTC


INFER just launched 3 new questions within our new topic, International Competitiveness in AI (see how we decomposed this topic to develop each forecast question here):

Which country or union will publish the second most AI related patents in 2022 according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?

When examining innovation in the AI sphere, it’s important to look at patents, as patents are a measure of commercially successful innovation. Since the inception of AI in 1956, innovators and researchers around the world have filed patent applications for nearly 340,000 AI-related inventions. With more access to data and greater computer power bringing an AI patent boom, countries have realized that filling patents play a key role in winning the AI race. The European Patent Office recently hosted a public conference to highlight the strategic progress that the EU has made in AI. For a similar reason, and to help explore the impact of AI on invention, the U.S. Patent office released new data on AI-related patents. Chinese inventors filed nearly 21,000 patents related to AI in 2020. With all this in mind, it’s important to ask what countries will be leading the way with patenting new AI technologies. 

Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022 according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?

The World Economic Forum has indicated that the number of jobs destroyed by AI will be surpassed by the number of 'jobs of tomorrow' created; however, job creation is slowing while job destruction accelerates. In the past few years, labor demand for AI-related skills in the U.S. has hovered around .5 percent per year, according to data from the OECD AI Policy Observatory. It is still unclear to what extent AI-related jobs will dominate the workspace within the next decade. Asking how the labor demand for AI skills in the U.S. will change over the course of the year can signal AI job demand in the near term.

In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most AI research publications ranked in the top 10% according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?

When listing countries that could lead the world in AI in the near future, few lists will not include China. However, China’s strong investment in AI is a relatively new development. China’s global share of research papers catapulted from 4.26% in 1997 to 27.68% in 2017. The number of Chinese AI firms is in the quadruple digits, second to only the U.S.. Among these firms, competition is fierce as to who can develop the most cutting-edge AI. Mobvoi is revolutionizing voice-based technologies. Cambrian Technologies is doing cutting-edge research into AI chip products. Ubtech Robotics is developing AI-based robots in countless sectors. Universities providing the research necessary for these companies are churning out publications at a record rate. This competition leads us to ask, will a Chinese institution be the leader in AI research publications this year?

These are just three of the forecasting questions we have released within the topic, International Competitiveness in AI. If you’re looking to forecast more on this topic, we have several other questions up on INFER already. Additionally, look for more forecasting questions on this topic in the coming weeks! 

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