Program Update: INFER now led by RAND

Feb 09, 2024 01:10AM UTC
We are pleased to announce that INFER, a crowdsourced forecasting program supporting U.S. policymaking and analysis, is now led by RAND

RAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. For more than 75 years, RAND has earned a reputation of excellence and influence through its research and analysis in areas such as national security, technology, health, education, and more. 

This new relationship will enable the INFER program to leverage RAND subject matter expertise as we aim to advance the forecasting capability of the U.S. government to strengthen decision analysis. INFER remains committed to its forecaster experience, covering priority issues for policymakers, and delivering timely analytical insights that can support U.S. decision advantage.

INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, was founded in 2022 as a new source of outside, diverse information for policymaking and analysis. The crowd forecasting program includes a public site ( with the goal of expanding to government classified sites in the future. INFER was run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs, with seed funding from Open Philanthropy. Cultivate Labs will continue to support RAND in running the program.

We look forward to this next chapter of INFER led by RAND and Cultivate Labs. We welcome your questions and feedback at [email protected].
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