The Pub BlogLooking for blog posts from our Foretell archive? Find them here.
By: INFER Team | Dec 21, 2022 09:39PM UTC
As the inaugural season of INFER comes to an end, we wanted to take a moment to reflect on some of our accomplishments as a community, our lessons learned, and also give you a glimpse of new initiatives we’re excited to share with you in 2023.
By: INFER Team | Dec 12, 2022 02:18PM UTC
INFER is pleased to announce that the Pro Forecaster Program will continue into the 2023 season. Up to 100 Pro Forecasters (“Pros”) are being selected for the program, which includes monthly payment for dedicated forecasting and exclusive training and events.
By: Zev Burton | Nov 01, 2022 06:19PM UTC
INFER launched new questions asking about advancements in quantum computing as part of the Global AI Race topic. This post explains why we chose those questions and what the answers suggest about the future direction of AI.
By: Zev Burton | Oct 27, 2022 05:28PM UTC
In our first blog series on cognitive biases, we dive into confirmation bias: what is it, and how can we avoid it in our forecasts?
By: INFER Team | Oct 26, 2022 07:41PM UTC
Making your first forecast? This guide will provide steps and example prompts that you can use to approach any forecast question for the first time.
By: Henry Tolchard | Oct 06, 2022 03:39PM UTC
What did EA student groups from universities across the globe learn during INFER's first forecasting tournament? The winning team, many of whom were first-time forecasters, share their thoughts!
By: Zev Burton | Oct 03, 2022 03:57PM UTC
A new batch of questions has launched in our latest topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector. This post discusses why we chose those questions and what the answers suggest about the direction the field is headed in.
By: Zev Burton | Sep 20, 2022 07:35PM UTC
With the launch of the new topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector, we’ve put together this Topic Brief filled with resources to help you make your forecasts.
Sneak peek: Forecaster training program coming soon; Pros begin this week with an open-source research training
By: INFER Team | Sep 06, 2022 06:52PM UTC
By: Zev Burton | Sep 06, 2022 04:20PM UTC
The first set of questions just launched in the new topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector. This post explains why we selected those questions and what they help to signal about the future of the field.
INFER introduces new topic to assess U.S. competitiveness in synthetic biology, focusing first on the energy sector
By: INFER Team | Aug 19, 2022 05:20PM UTC
INFER has launched a new topic area on synthetic biology to assess how this field will transform U.S. competitiveness and increase national security in the energy sector.
By: Zev Burton | Aug 16, 2022 03:11PM UTC
In this edition of "Thoughts from a Pro," we caught up with a Pro who submitted the recently-closed PHEIC question, Alex Demarsh!
By: Zev Burton | Aug 15, 2022 06:35PM UTC
Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher?
By: Zev Burton | Jul 15, 2022 01:16PM UTC
Take a look at the development team's new features to improve your forecasting!
By: INFER Team | Jul 08, 2022 05:10PM UTC
Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors! You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills.
By: Zev Burton | Jul 07, 2022 07:08PM UTC
An introduction to the global artificial intelligence (AI) competition as a starting point for your forecasting.
By: Zev Burton | Jun 28, 2022 04:48PM UTC
Fern answers a question concerning the ambiguity of language and explains why INFER uses numerical probabilities instead.
By: Zev Burton | Jun 15, 2022 06:55PM UTC
A basic introduction to the field of microelectronics as a starting point for your forecasting.
By: Zev Burton | Jun 13, 2022 05:08PM UTC
This week, we released questions on AI patent development and scientific publications.
By: Zev Burton | Jun 01, 2022 07:16PM UTC
In this batch of new questions, users can forecast about high-impact AI projects, AI publications, and AI skills penetration.
By: Zev Burton | May 26, 2022 09:00PM UTC
In the first "By the Numbers," we explore the number of forecasts, how accurate forecasters were, and many other statistics about INFER forecasts during the month of April.
By: INFER Team | May 13, 2022 08:42PM UTC
This week's new question release features questions on AI related patents, domestic demand for AI skills, and Chinese research output.
By: INFER Team | May 10, 2022 04:11PM UTC
A new advice column in which forecasters write in to "Fern" for help with anything forecasting related. Today's forecaster writes in: I'm not an expert on AI or microelectronics, can I still forecast on these questions?
By: INFER Team | May 03, 2022 07:41PM UTC
Learn about the factors we are assessing to understand the global state of artificial intelligence and which countries we will be focusing on with our new Strategic Question: Which countries will lead AI developments in research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade?
By: INFER Team | Apr 20, 2022 06:50PM UTC
INFER has launched its first tournament for effective altruism (EA) student groups. EA groups from top universities around the world are learning forecasting techniques and putting skills into practice in an attempt to be more accurate in predicting the future.