The Pub

Looking for blog posts from our Foretell archive? Find them here.

Monkeypox: The Outcome We Didn’t Expect

Zev Burton
Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher? 

New Features: Pre-Mortems and Accuracy Comparisons

Zev Burton
Take a look at the development team's new features to improve your forecasting!

Forecaster spotlights: Meet Dawna and Ryan, our community mentors

INFER Team
Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors!  You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills. 

Topic Brief: The Global AI Race

Zev Burton
An introduction to the global artificial intelligence (AI) competition as a starting point for your forecasting.

Dear Fern: Why do we use numbers to express a forecast?

Zev Burton
Fern answers a question concerning the ambiguity of language and explains why INFER uses numerical probabilities instead.

Topic Brief: Microelectronics 101

Zev Burton
A basic introduction to the field of microelectronics as a starting point for your forecasting.

New question release: AI patents in U.S. and China, and AI scientific publications in the EU

Zev Burton
This week, we released questions on AI patent development and scientific publications.

New question release: AI “high impact” projects, publications, and skills

Zev Burton
In this batch of new questions, users can forecast about high-impact AI projects, AI publications, and AI skills penetration.

By the numbers: INFER forecasts increase and "time" is most popular word in April

Zev Burton
In the first "By the Numbers," we explore the number of forecasts, how accurate forecasters were, and many other statistics about INFER forecasts during the month of April. 

New question release: AI patents, skill demand, and Chinese publications

INFER Team
This week's new question release features questions on AI related patents, domestic demand for AI skills, and Chinese research output.

Dear Fern: I'm not an expert

INFER Team
A new advice column in which forecasters write in to "Fern" for help with anything forecasting related. Today's forecaster writes in: I'm not an expert on AI or microelectronics, can I still forecast on these questions?

Who is winning the AI race: United States, China, or someone else?

INFER Team
Learn about the factors we are assessing to understand the global state of artificial intelligence and which countries we will be focusing on with our new Strategic Question: Which countries will lead AI developments in research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade? 

Effective altruism students hone forecasting skills in first INFER tournament

INFER Team
INFER has launched its first tournament for effective altruism (EA) student groups. EA groups from top universities around the world are learning forecasting techniques and putting skills into practice in an attempt to be more accurate in predicting the future.

New question release: aluminum prices, lithography machines, and China’s top universities

INFER Team
This week's new question release features questions on aluminum prices, sales of extreme ultraviolet lithography machinery to the U.S., and rankings of Chinese universities in computer science.

Microelectronics: A major factor for assessing U.S. competitiveness in AI

INFER Team
Learn about all the factors we're assessing to understand the U.S. competitive position in microelectronics, a key contributor to the U.S. overall competitiveness in AI.

Assessing U.S. competitiveness in AI using crowdsourced forecasting

INFER Team
Learn about INFER's U.S. Competitiveness in AI topic area and the decomposition we used to develop forecast questions.

Get better answers by asking better questions: understanding strategic question decomposition

INFER Team
Learn how the INFER team uses a process called “Strategic Question Decomposition” to develop forecast questions that help shed light on broader strategic issues.

New feature releases: analysis tab, comment filters

INFER Team
We have recently introduced two new features on INFER to help you evaluate and use crowd forecasts and comments with greater ease and precision. Within each question page, you can now find 1) an Analysis tab and 2) comment filters.

Pro Forecasters: what they do and why they're an important part of INFER Public

INFER Team
We've launched the 2022 Pro Forecaster program, comprised of 100 forecasters paid to dedicate time to forecasting, collaborating with other Pros, and attending exclusive trainings and events. Here's what's new for 2022, why INFER is investing in growing the program -- and how you can become a Pro!
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