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How They Do It: Lessons Learned From Our Top Forecasters

By: Leah Schroeder | Mar 18, 2024 04:17PM UTC

We spoke to some of the forecasters who ranked in the top 20% of the 2023 leaderboard about how they approached the forecasting process, and what techniques they believe made their performance stand out during the season.

Q&A with two Pro Forecasters and national security experts

By: INFER Team | Feb 27, 2024 07:18PM UTC

We talked with Pro Forecasters Geoff Odlum and Trent Hesslink about their experiences in forecasting, and the impact of crowd forecasting for governments and national security. 

Program Update: INFER now led by RAND

By: INFER Team | Feb 09, 2024 01:10AM UTC

We're pleased to announce this new relationship, which will enable INFER to leverage RAND subject matter expertise as we aim to strengthen decision analysis within the U.S. government. 

INFER's Best of 2023: Celebrating Forecaster Accomplishments

By: INFER Team | Jan 23, 2024 03:20PM UTC

INFER is pleased to share the Best of 2023 list, celebrating our most accurate and engaged forecasters from last season.

Looking back: How INFER navigated global uncertainty in 2023

By: INFER Team | Dec 18, 2023 07:11PM UTC

We are concluding INFER’s second year of crowd forecasting following a year rife with uncertainty for policymakers. INFER’s community of forecasters parsed complex issues to make sense of critical events that will shape the future for years to come.

Google experts join INFER forecasting meetup to explore the future of AI

By: INFER Team | Sep 25, 2023 05:37PM UTC

A recap of a special forecasting event INFER hosted about the future of AI, attended by select INFER forecasters and nearly two dozen forecasting enthusiasts who work at Google, joining in a personal capacity.

INFER forecasters weigh the prospects of Ukraine’s counteroffensive

By: Walter Frick | Jun 27, 2023 04:31PM UTC

All spring, the world waited for Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia to begin. Now that it is under way, policymakers around the world are closely monitoring its prospects. Forecasters at INFER are tracking the conflict, too, and predicting the amount of territory each side will hold by the end of the year. 

Team Leads cross the finish line on half-year forecasting tournament with teammates

By: INFER Team | May 10, 2023 01:28PM UTC

Last fall, INFER introduced a new Team Lead opportunity for forecasters who were interested in getting others in their community involved in crowd forecasting. Team Leads were tasked with recruiting and leading a team of forecasters in a six-month forecasting tournament that ended in April.

Introducing the INFER mobile app

By: INFER Team | May 08, 2023 07:33PM UTC

Our forecasters have been asking for a mobile app – and we are excited to share that it is now available for INFER. You will now be able to submit forecasts on critical questions to support INFER’s government stakeholders directly from our native app on a phone or tablet. 

How our 2023 Pro Forecasters earned their spot and welcoming the new Pro All Stars

By: INFER Team | Mar 23, 2023 04:55PM UTC

INFER welcomed a new cohort of 85 Pro Forecasters with a kickoff event in February. Pros were selected to be part of the paid program for their proven forecasting performance, and play a key role in generating quality data for U.S. Government decision makers. 10 Pros were recognized with a new All Star designation!

INFER and UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment launch collaboration

By: INFER Team | Feb 21, 2023 10:34PM UTC

INFER is pleased to announce a collaboration with Cosmic Bazaar, the crowdsourced forecasting program run by the UK’s Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA).

INFER's Best of 2022: Congratulations to the season's leaders across various forecasting categories

By: INFER Team | Feb 21, 2023 10:33PM UTC

See who made the Best of 2022 and help us recognize their outstanding contributions.

A look back at 2022 and where we’re headed

By: INFER Team | Dec 21, 2022 09:39PM UTC

As the inaugural season of INFER comes to an end, we wanted to take a moment to reflect on some of our accomplishments as a community, our lessons learned, and also give you a glimpse of new initiatives we’re excited to share with you in 2023. 

2023 Pro Forecaster selections begin in December

By: INFER Team | Dec 12, 2022 02:18PM UTC

INFER is pleased to announce that the Pro Forecaster Program will continue into the 2023 season. Up to 100 Pro Forecasters (“Pros”) are being selected for the program, which includes monthly payment for dedicated forecasting and exclusive training and events.

EA Tournament participants learned to forecast for a better future

By: Henry Tolchard | Oct 06, 2022 03:39PM UTC

What did EA student groups from universities across the globe learn during INFER's first forecasting tournament? The winning team, many of whom were first-time forecasters, share their thoughts!

Sneak peek: Forecaster training program coming soon; Pros begin this week with an open-source research training

By: INFER Team | Sep 06, 2022 06:52PM UTC

We're excited to show you a sneak peek of our new Forecaster Training Program designed by our partners at Pytho. Special live training on open source research techniques will also be offered to a select group of Pros and other forecasters.

Forecaster spotlights: Meet Dawna and Ryan, our community mentors

By: INFER Team | Jul 08, 2022 05:10PM UTC

Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors!  You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills. 

By the numbers: INFER forecasts increase and "time" is most popular word in April

By: Zev Burton | May 26, 2022 09:00PM UTC

In the first "By the Numbers," we explore the number of forecasts, how accurate forecasters were, and many other statistics about INFER forecasts during the month of April. 

Effective altruism students hone forecasting skills in first INFER tournament

By: Henry Tolchard | Apr 20, 2022 06:50PM UTC

INFER has launched its first tournament for effective altruism (EA) student groups. EA groups from top universities around the world are learning forecasting techniques and putting skills into practice in an attempt to be more accurate in predicting the future.

Pro Forecasters: What they do and why they're an important part of INFER Public

By: INFER Team | Feb 02, 2022 04:49PM UTC

We've launched the 2022 Pro Forecaster program, comprised of 100 forecasters paid to dedicate time to forecasting, collaborating with other Pros, and attending exclusive trainings and events. Here's what's new for 2022, why INFER is investing in growing the program -- and how you can become a Pro!

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