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Using AI to improve your forecast rationale

By: Henry Tolchard | Jul 27, 2023 08:09PM UTC

In this post, we explore how you can use an AI tool like ChatGPT to gain a quick understanding of a complex forecast topic as well as improve the logical support behind your rationale.

What to do when a question resolution doesn’t go your way: conducting a post-mortem

By: Henry Tolchard | Mar 08, 2023 03:04PM UTC

When you drop in ranking due to a single inaccurate forecast (as happens to everyone sooner or later!), what can you learn from these moments?

Learning and improving our forecasts together: crowd forecast change alerts

By: INFER Team | Feb 10, 2023 03:18PM UTC

Crowd forecasting allows you to get signals about events before they happen. We're making it even easier to be alerted to important signals by introducing crowd forecast change alerts – which notify you of sudden shifts in the consensus forecast.

Bias control: Confirmation bias

By: Zev Burton | Oct 27, 2022 05:28PM UTC

In our first blog series on cognitive biases, we dive into confirmation bias: what is it, and how can we avoid it in our forecasts?

A guide to making an initial forecast

By: Henry Tolchard | Oct 26, 2022 07:41PM UTC

Making your first forecast? This guide will provide steps and example prompts that you can use to approach any forecast question for the first time.

Sneak peek: Forecaster training program coming soon; Pros begin this week with an open-source research training

By: INFER Team | Sep 06, 2022 06:52PM UTC

We're excited to show you a sneak peek of our new Forecaster Training Program designed by our partners at Pytho. Special live training on open source research techniques will also be offered to a select group of Pros and other forecasters.

Thoughts from a Pro: How crowd forecasting can benefit public health policy

By: Zev Burton | Aug 16, 2022 03:11PM UTC

In this edition of "Thoughts from a Pro," we caught up with a Pro who submitted the recently-closed PHEIC question, Alex Demarsh!

Monkeypox: The outcome we didn’t expect

By: Zev Burton | Aug 15, 2022 06:35PM UTC

Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher? 

Forecaster spotlights: Meet Dawna and Ryan, our community mentors

By: INFER Team | Jul 08, 2022 05:10PM UTC

Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors!  You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills. 

Dear Fern: Why do we use numbers to express a forecast?

By: Zev Burton | Jun 28, 2022 04:48PM UTC

Fern answers a question concerning the ambiguity of language and explains why INFER uses numerical probabilities instead.

Dear Fern: I'm not an expert

By: INFER Team | May 10, 2022 04:11PM UTC

A new advice column in which forecasters write in to "Fern" for help with anything forecasting related. Today's forecaster writes in: I'm not an expert on AI or microelectronics, can I still forecast on these questions?

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