belikewater
made their 11th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 29, 2024 05:58AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50% (+10%)
Yes
Dec 29, 2023 to Jun 29, 2024

I’m adjusting my forecast up slightly. At its present rate of uranium enrichment, it seems quite possible that Iran could develop enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon within the next six months. So, why would Israel wait longer? I think the situation is really going to come to a head in 2024. I think Trump’s pulling the US out of the JCPOA has accelerated this process as well.

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