cmeinel
made their 19th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 20, 2024 01:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13% (+5%)
Yes
Jan 20, 2024 to Jul 20, 2024

Increasing given how Iran's increasing violence against its neighbors is increasing the intensity with which its neighbors view that rogue nation.

Dateline 1-19-2024 The Iranian Foreign Ministry expressed its rejection today, Friday, of the statement by the Arab League condemning the strikes conducted by Iranian forces on locations in the city of Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan (KRI).
Source: https://shafaq.com/en/World/Tehran-rejects-Arab-League-statement-on-Erbil-attack-Urges-efforts-to-halt-Gaza-bombardment

Dateline 1-20-2024 An Israeli air strike on Damascus on Saturday killed four members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, including a senior figure in its information unit, a security source in the regional pro-Syrian alliance told Reuters.

The strike, using precision-guided missiles according to the source, flattened a multi-storey building in the neighbourhood of Mazzeh in the Syrian capital.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strike-damascus-killed-4-iranian-revolutionary-guards-source-2024-01-20/


Dateline 1-20-2024 Commanders from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Lebanon's Hezbollah group are on the ground in Yemen helping to direct and oversee Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, four regional and two Iranian sources told Reuters.

Iran - which has armed, trained and funded the Houthis - stepped up its weapons supplies to the militia in the wake of the war in Gaza, which erupted after Iranian-backed militants Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, the four regional sources said.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-hezbollah-commanders-help-direct-houthi-attacks-yemen-sources-say-2024-01-20/

Dateline 1-20-2024 United States fighter jets struck Iran-backed Houthi sites in Yemen for a sixth time Friday, taking out anti-ship missile launchers that were prepared to fire.
Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-6th-set-of-yemen-strikes-us-hits-houthi-anti-ship-missile-launchers-ready-to-fire/

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