Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
6%
(+4%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
92%
(-4%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Interestingly it seems like Iran has decreased its stockpile of Uranium enriched to above 60% [IAEA Report]. However, the production of HEU has not dropped — in fact they seem to have increased monthly production from 2.9kgU/mo in the last period to 7.3kgU/mo in this reporting period. The reason for the fall is that they decided to downblend 31.8kgU. It seems like the reason for this is unknown, but some hypotheses are:
Private agreement with someone. I'm not sure what incentive there would be for this deal to be private. If this hypothesis were true, given the current geopolitical climate I'd expect "someone" is Russia or China with something in return for Iran. I'm really not sure what this could be, and as far as I can tell Russia & China have not been strong opponents of Iran's nuclear programme.
Iran are trying to avoid provoking confrontations over stockpile while they figure out how to increase production rate. I don't see any indication that Iran is at 'peak production rates.
We have the usual condemnations and call for repercussions from western countries, but I don't think that's likely to lead anywhere in the next year.
So on one hand we have a pretty big increase in >60% U production. On the other, Iran's decision to downblend so much of their stockpile introduces uncertainty into the mix. I still find it more likely than not that overall Iran continue to increase their stockpile. But I'm shifting some probability to the "reduced less than 50%" category.
Interestingly it seems like Iran has decreased its stockpile of Uranium enriched to above 60% [IAEA Report]. However, the production of HEU has not dropped — in fact they seem to have increased monthly production from 2.9kgU/mo in the last period to 7.3kgU/mo in this reporting period. The reason for the fall is that they decided to downblend 31.8kgU. It seems like the reason for this is unknown, but some hypotheses are:
- Private agreement with someone. I'm not sure what incentive there would be for this deal to be private. If this hypothesis were true, given the current geopolitical climate I'd expect "someone" is Russia or China with something in return for Iran. I'm really not sure what this could be, and as far as I can tell Russia & China have not been strong opponents of Iran's nuclear programme.
- Iran are trying to avoid provoking confrontations over stockpile while they figure out how to increase production rate. I don't see any indication that Iran is at 'peak production rates.
We have the usual condemnations and call for repercussions from western countries, but I don't think that's likely to lead anywhere in the next year.So on one hand we have a pretty big increase in >60% U production. On the other, Iran's decision to downblend so much of their stockpile introduces uncertainty into the mix. I still find it more likely than not that overall Iran continue to increase their stockpile. But I'm shifting some probability to the "reduced less than 50%" category.