Time remaining.
0.041377
Relative Brier Score
30
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 7 | 126 | 30 | 381 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 93 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 6 | 25 | 10 | 57 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 52 | 16 | 102 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-5%)
Yes
98%
(+5%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
6%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
92%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Why do you think you're right?
Staying constant on this — we've had a couple of weeks of unrest re. Iran. This could mean:
- Iran feels pressured to drive forward its programme (stockpile ↑)
- Increased attacks on Iran focused specifically on reducing its enriched uranium stockpile (stockpile ↓)
- Increased negotiation efforts leading to Iran agreeing to reduce its stockpile (stockpile ↓)
I think the (stockpile ↑) effects approximately cancel with the (stockpile ↓) effects in expectation. So I'm not going to move my forecast (though this represents a slight tilt towards (stockpile ↓) as I would've adjusted for time otherwise).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+16%)
Less than $90
2%
(-15%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Model update. With the time remaining, exceeding $90 tomorrow is very unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(+3%)
Less than $90
17%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
1%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Updating based on latest price
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
79%
(+6%)
Less than $90
19%
(-6%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Update latest data.
Files
See my previous forecast for base rates. I think the risk of forced regime changed has increased, but only very slightly as the risk to further escalation in the current situation seems to have cooled slightly. As far as I can tell, I don't see any health-reasons to update on.