Forecasted Questions
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2024 10:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Feb 26, 2024 10:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 19% | Feb 26, 2024 to Aug 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 8% | +11% | -1% |
| No | 81% | Feb 26, 2024 to Aug 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 92% | -11% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 8% | -3% | +1% |
| No | 95% | 92% | +3% | -1% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 08:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Apr 22, 2024 08:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 2% | 0% | +2% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 6% | 4% | +2% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 92% | 95% | -3% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Apr 22, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024 | Jul 22, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Apr 22, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 95% | +3% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Apr 22, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | Apr 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 | Jul 22, 2024 | 9% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 87% | Apr 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 | Jul 22, 2024 | 91% | -4% | +0% |