"Odds of death for a 84 year old man are about 9% per year. I will boost it to 14% because of his known health issues (possible cancer, surgery in the last year).
Odds of a coup or revolution are lower. Iran has had lots of protests and violence in the last 40 years without regime change. The 1978-79 Revolution took more than a year to play out. If the regime has already lasted 40 years, probably <2% chance of assassination/revolution per year. I'll boost it to 6% because there has been extensive unrest in the last year that could flair up again especially as Iran's economic situation remains precarious."
I think odds of an uprising are not as high as last year, given lack of protests. On the other hand Khamanei is now 85. I am adjusting my life expectancy odds up however, because last time I did not incorporate the fact that his father lived until 90, and his older brother (age 88) is still alive, indicating high longevity in the family. So I will give 10% chance of natural death and 2% chance of political upheaval.
My rationale on a similar question in April of last year:
"Odds of death for a 84 year old man are about 9% per year. I will boost it to 14% because of his known health issues (possible cancer, surgery in the last year).
Odds of a coup or revolution are lower. Iran has had lots of protests and violence in the last 40 years without regime change. The 1978-79 Revolution took more than a year to play out. If the regime has already lasted 40 years, probably <2% chance of assassination/revolution per year. I'll boost it to 6% because there has been extensive unrest in the last year that could flair up again especially as Iran's economic situation remains precarious."
I think odds of an uprising are not as high as last year, given lack of protests. On the other hand Khamanei is now 85. I am adjusting my life expectancy odds up however, because last time I did not incorporate the fact that his father lived until 90, and his older brother (age 88) is still alive, indicating high longevity in the family. So I will give 10% chance of natural death and 2% chance of political upheaval.