OK, so... how successful will the counteroffensive be vs. will Russia capture any additional territory?
Both bin A and bin E seem very unlikely. In a world where Ukraine recaptures all of the territory taken since the 2022 re-invasion, I'd expect that there'd probably be some kind of push for a ceasefire/peace agreement (and that doesn't seem likely before the end of this year). Similarly, based on the current state of affairs, hard to imagine Russia picking up more territory. Gonna start those both at zero.
That leaves B/C/D.
B -- could Ukraine get it back down to nearly what it looked like in Spring 2022 (or shortly after). Ehhhhh, maybe? But again, I gotta think that Russia will not "go quietly into the night" and just give up all this territory it has taken. At least not in the span of these 6 months (to Dec 2023). Possible? Sure. But not the most likely outcome (at this point).
D -- Will Russia have a strong pushback against Ukraine's counter, such that it will be seen to have more territory than it does now (by the time we get to December)? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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The one thing about this question that makes me want to do some more digging -- winter months. As in, we're resolving based on the state of play in December. So, if Ukraine has a great pushback now, and then gives it all back by December (such that it looks like it does now), then that's important. So, is either military better suited to the winter offensive/defensive that we might see a counter come November where there's a shift.
OK, so... how successful will the counteroffensive be vs. will Russia capture any additional territory?
Both bin A and bin E seem very unlikely. In a world where Ukraine recaptures all of the territory taken since the 2022 re-invasion, I'd expect that there'd probably be some kind of push for a ceasefire/peace agreement (and that doesn't seem likely before the end of this year). Similarly, based on the current state of affairs, hard to imagine Russia picking up more territory. Gonna start those both at zero.
That leaves B/C/D.
B -- could Ukraine get it back down to nearly what it looked like in Spring 2022 (or shortly after). Ehhhhh, maybe? But again, I gotta think that Russia will not "go quietly into the night" and just give up all this territory it has taken. At least not in the span of these 6 months (to Dec 2023). Possible? Sure. But not the most likely outcome (at this point).
D -- Will Russia have a strong pushback against Ukraine's counter, such that it will be seen to have more territory than it does now (by the time we get to December)? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
~
The one thing about this question that makes me want to do some more digging -- winter months. As in, we're resolving based on the state of play in December. So, if Ukraine has a great pushback now, and then gives it all back by December (such that it looks like it does now), then that's important. So, is either military better suited to the winter offensive/defensive that we might see a counter come November where there's a shift.