Adjusting this to more realistic odds, now that it's clear the Russians will not, in fact, be moving their troops frantically out of Ukraine to put down a mutiny. In retrospect I think I made a mistake of overreacting to breaking news, which is definitely a risk when you are spending too much time looking at the news. You always need to take a breath and take a step back.
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(-49%)
Less than 7%
16%
(-12%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
60%
(+40%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
22%
(+20%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
1%
(+1%)
More than or equal to 22%
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