Per the base rate info posted by @2e10e122 there have been the following attacks that would count for this question:
1. June 2010 Stuxnet virus
2. April 2011 Stars virus
3. Nov. 2011 Duqu virus
4. May 2012 Flame virus. (This one is unclear, though seems to count according to this WaPo story from the time.)
5. Jan. 2018 Mossad raid on warehouse of archives in Tehran.
6. July 2020 Natanz explosion (also the bombing of the missile facility mentioned in the Background).
7. April 2021 Natanz attack per the question's Background.
8. June 2021 Karaj drone attack
These are 8 attacks, and there have been 158 months since June 2010. So each month has a 5% chance. For a 6-month period, this works out to a 26% chance. (The math is one minus .95 to the 6th power)
The next question is whether to deviate from the base rate. On the one hand we know that nuclear negotiations are ongoing, and an attack might complicate these negotiations. On the other hand, Israel may be a wildcard--it wasn't keen on the last nuclear deal and might launch an attack even though the US opposes it. On balance I'll subtract 4 points from the base rate.
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Why might you be wrong?
My math might be wrong, since I look at other rationales and the assumed base rate seems to be lower than what I calculated.
Why do you think you're right?
Per the base rate info posted by @2e10e122 there have been the following attacks that would count for this question:
1. June 2010 Stuxnet virus
2. April 2011 Stars virus
3. Nov. 2011 Duqu virus
4. May 2012 Flame virus. (This one is unclear, though seems to count according to this WaPo story from the time.)
5. Jan. 2018 Mossad raid on warehouse of archives in Tehran.
6. July 2020 Natanz explosion (also the bombing of the missile facility mentioned in the Background).
7. April 2021 Natanz attack per the question's Background.
8. June 2021 Karaj drone attack
These are 8 attacks, and there have been 158 months since June 2010. So each month has a 5% chance. For a 6-month period, this works out to a 26% chance. (The math is one minus .95 to the 6th power)
The next question is whether to deviate from the base rate. On the one hand we know that nuclear negotiations are ongoing, and an attack might complicate these negotiations. On the other hand, Israel may be a wildcard--it wasn't keen on the last nuclear deal and might launch an attack even though the US opposes it. On balance I'll subtract 4 points from the base rate.
Why might you be wrong?
My math might be wrong, since I look at other rationales and the assumed base rate seems to be lower than what I calculated.