Given her current hold on Congress and the US international support, it is unlikely she will suffer the same fate as her predecessor.
-0.363973
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 11:44PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Jan 31, 2024 to Feb 29, 2024
20%
No
Jan 31, 2024 to Feb 29, 2024
Given Israel has relocated several elite units from Gaza to the north, it is likely an invasion of Lebanon will take place in the coming weeks.
Files
Interesting, thanks for the link! Yep, I agree the region has a lot of unreliable information but it might be a defensive move and not necessarily at aggressive one
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than 5%
58%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
40%
More than or equal to 6%
Given UK's current efforts in increasing its consumption of biofuels, even with notable hardships such as it struggling to meet EU renewable fuel targets, it currently uses around 6%, making such a milestone achievable this year, even if by tight margins. Considering both hardships and positive factors, it is likely the final margin will lay in the 5%-6% range.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Given Thailand has not recorded such protests in a long time, and given there is little time remaining for such a demonstration, it is unlikely it wil occur, expect an unexpected scandal or notorious event takes place that it rallies the population into "spontaneous" demonstrations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Given Israel is currently involved in a high scale conflict, it is unlikely any agreement will be signed this year as the country has to deal with the conflict in full attention, leaving little room for such a move.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Given Israel is currently involved in a high scale conflict ans that the Sudanese government has not yet fully stabilized, it is unlikely the agreement will be signed this year as both countries deal with more urgent matters.
Files
Given existent precedent episodes and high tensions in the region, with Israel aiming to jeopardize perceived enemies, it is likely such an attack will take place.