HenriqueFontes

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-0.364865

Relative Brier Score

4

Forecasts

0

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Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 1 107 4 207
Comments 0 0 1 1 3
Questions Forecasted 0 1 40 3 61
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 0 4
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Given the current success of the russian troops on Ukrainian soil, with most defenses faltering and the last remaining large defense line failing, it is almost certain Kharkiv will be attacked and fall this year. Odessa is still a certain target and will likely be attacked this year, but it is likely there are other priorities for the russian, namely these two, than Kyiv.

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Given existent precedent episodes and high tensions in the region, with Israel aiming to jeopardize perceived enemies, it is likely such an attack will take place.

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Given her current hold on Congress and the US international support, it is unlikely she will suffer the same fate as her predecessor. 



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New Prediction
HenriqueFontes
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 11:44PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Jan 31, 2024 to Feb 29, 2024
20%
No
Jan 31, 2024 to Feb 29, 2024

Given Israel has relocated several elite units from Gaza to the north, it is likely an invasion of Lebanon will take place in the coming weeks.

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Heramb_42
made a comment:
Interesting, thanks for the link! Yep, I agree the region has a lot of unreliable information but it might be a defensive move and not necessarily at aggressive one
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HenriqueFontes
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than 5%
58%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
40%
More than or equal to 6%

Given UK's current efforts in increasing its consumption of biofuels, even with notable hardships such as it struggling to meet EU renewable fuel targets, it currently uses around 6%, making such a milestone achievable this year, even if by tight margins. Considering both hardships and positive factors, it is likely the final margin will lay in the 5%-6% range.

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New Prediction

Given Thailand has not recorded such protests in a long time, and given there is little time remaining for such a demonstration, it is unlikely it wil occur, expect an unexpected scandal or notorious event takes place that it rallies the population into "spontaneous" demonstrations.

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