Forecasted Questions
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 11:34PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 31, 2023 11:34PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 5% | +10% | -8% |
| No | 85% | 95% | -10% | +8% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 11:34PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 31, 2023 11:34PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 1% | +7% | -2% |
| No | 92% | 99% | -7% | +2% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 11:34PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 31, 2023 11:34PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 2% | +8% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 98% | -8% | +1% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 11:35PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 31, 2023 11:35PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 10% | 94% | -84% | +56% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 50% | 5% | +45% | -40% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 40% | 0% | +40% | -12% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -4% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 11:35PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 31, 2023 11:35PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 95% | 99% | -4% | +48% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 5% | 1% | +4% | -44% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -3% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 11:35PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 31, 2023 11:35PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 13% | +17% | -41% |
| No | 70% | 87% | -17% | +41% |
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2024 07:14PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 28, 2024 07:14PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 82% | -2% | +5% |
| No | 20% | 18% | +2% | -5% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 03:04AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 03:04AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 70% | 25% | +45% | +2% |
| Kyiv | 10% | 3% | +7% | +2% |
| Odesa | 40% | 6% | +34% | +3% |