Loki

About:

I have some previous forecasting experience, and like maths, philosophy and effective altruism.
I run a monthly forecasting newsletter, available here: https://forecasting.substack.com/, and have written & maintain a forecast aggregator at https://metaforecast.org
Part of the legendary Samotsvey Forecasting team, which won the first two seasons overwhelmingly. Note: I will generally not be updating my forecasts, or participating in the 2022 season, on account of ARLIS paying too little.

Twitter Blog
Show more
View All Badges ยป
Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2021 06:14PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 05, 2022 04:06PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30 (good reputation) Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 40, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50 Answer was incorrect
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60 Answer was incorrect
More than 60 (bad reputation) Answer was incorrect

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 09, 2022 06:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel