Started Jun 24, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?

Context. The International Health Regulations (2005) empower the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), defined as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response." An IHR Emergency Committee comprising a panel of experts advises the WHO Director-General on potential PHEICs. The WHO Director-General makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.

Since 2007, the WHO has made six PHEIC declarations: the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, Ebola (West African outbreak 2013–2015, outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo 2018–2020), poliomyelitis (2014 to present), Zika (2016) and COVID-19 (2020 to present).

Resolution details. This question resolves based on an official declaration by the WHO. 

Why does this question close so soon? We will soon implement a new rolling-risk format on Foretell. Questions of this form will ask about the likelihood of an event within a set period of time, e.g., 12 months. Such questions could remain active indefinitely. When that format is available, this question will be re-published in that format.

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This question was proposed by P Alex Demarsh (palexd).

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Question clarification
Issued on 07/06/21 11:08am
A forecaster asked whether a PHEIC issued for any COVID variants would be considered a "new" PHEIC. Issuing a PHEIC is a formal process. The current PHEIC would appear to include variants, and therefore, I doubt the WHO would issue a new PHEIC for a COVID variant. But in the event the WHO did go through the formal process of declaring a new PHEIC for a COVID variant, that would count as a new PHEIC.
Resolution Notes

The World Health Organization declared the global monkeypox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 23 July 2022.

https://www.who.int/news/item/23-07-2022-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-(ihr)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-multi-country-outbreak-of-monkeypox
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1550847224963371010

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 29.92%
No 70.08%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 125
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 551
Average for questions older than 6 months: 161
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.989
2.
-0.969
3.
-0.865
5.
-0.813

Consensus Trend

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