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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Closer to the deadline with no sign of troop buildup necessary for a blockade
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-5%)
Yes
Gotten closer to the deadline with no signs of tension
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-7%)
Yes
Lowering prediction since 2 months is a very short time for a reversal to be implemented
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Xi was confirmed again in the recent party meeting.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Xi could die in the next 2 months
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
I think given China's poor economic situation and the West's strong response in Ukraine makes an invasion unlikely in the 5 coming months. I think it is also likely that any invasion would be preceded by a blockade, which would take time to develop.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Since the violence in 2020 there haven't been more casualties, it also does not seem like tensions are rising.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A small skirmish could boil over.
Files