RAND Forecasting Initiative

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:17PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	77%	65%	+12%	+0%
30 days	1%	7%	-6%	-1%
31-60 days	22%	7%	+15%	-1%
61-90 days	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
91 days or more	0%	16%	-16%	+2%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:17PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	1%	7%	-6%	-1%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	1%	4%	-3%	-1%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:17PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	6%	2%	+4%	-1%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	22%	9%	+13%	+0%
Not before 2026	72%	89%	-17%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:18PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	9%	15%	-6%	+6%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:19PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	29%	Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Aug 31, 2025 01:19PM	34%	-5%	+2%
No	71%	Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Aug 31, 2025 01:19PM	66%	+5%	-2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:20PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	27%	27%	+0%	-3%
No	73%	73%	+0%	+3%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:20PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Aug 31, 2025 01:20PM	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Aug 31, 2025 01:20PM	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:20PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:20PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Aug 31, 2025 01:20PM	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026	Aug 31, 2025 01:20PM	99%	+0%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 01:20PM
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2027	Oct 31, 2025 01:20PM	6%	-6%	+0%
No	100%	Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2027	Oct 31, 2025 01:20PM	94%	+6%	+0%

SOUZACaio

About: