SOUZACaio

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Forecasted Questions

    If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 08:37PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than 30 days 77% 64%
    30 days 1% 8%
    31-60 days 22% 7%
    61-90 days 0% 6%
    91 days or more 0% 15%

    Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    13 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
    (1 year from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 08:37PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Moldova 1% 8%
    Armenia 1% 2%
    Georgia 1% 5%
    Kazakhstan 1% 2%

    When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

    Forecast Count:
    4 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 08:59PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 0% 0%
    1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 0% 0%
    1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 6% 2%
    1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 22% 8%
    Not before 2026 72% 89%

    Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

    Forecast Count:
    9 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 09:00PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Togo 9% 9%
    Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations Answer was correct

    Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

    Forecast Count:
    9 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
    Yes 36% Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2025 09:11PM 33%
    No 64% Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2025 09:11PM 67%

    Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    9 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
    (1 year from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 27% 30%
    No 73% 70%

    Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

    Forecast Count:
    10 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
    Yes 0% Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2025 09:11PM 1%
    No 100% Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2025 09:11PM 99%

    Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    10 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (6 days from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 0% 1%
    Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 0% 1%
    Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 1%
    Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 0%

    Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    13 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
    (1 year from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 09:12PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Estonia 1% 3%
    Latvia 1% 3%
    Lithuania 1% 3%

    Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

    Forecast Count:
    8 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 30, 2025 09:12PM
    (26 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
    Yes 1% Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2025 09:12PM 1%
    No 99% Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2025 09:12PM 99%
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