Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 08:37PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 08:37PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 30 days | 77% | 64% | +13% | +2% |
30 days | 1% | 8% | -7% | -2% |
31-60 days | 22% | 7% | +15% | +0% |
61-90 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | +0% |
91 days or more | 0% | 15% | -15% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 08:37PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 08:37PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 1% | 8% | -7% | +0% |
Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Georgia | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 08:59PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 08:59PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 6% | 2% | +4% | -1% |
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 22% | 8% | +14% | +0% |
Not before 2026 | 72% | 89% | -17% | +1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 09:00PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 09:00PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 9% | 9% | +0% | -1% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 36% | Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 09:11PM | 33% | +3% | -6% |
No | 64% | Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 09:11PM | 67% | -3% | +6% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 27% | 30% | -3% | 0% |
No | 73% | 70% | +3% | 0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 09:11PM | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 09:11PM | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 days from now)
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 09:11PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 09:12PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 09:12PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Latvia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 09:12PM
(26 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 09:12PM
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 09:12PM | 1% | +0% | -2% |
No | 99% | Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 09:12PM | 99% | +0% | +2% |