80th
Accuracy Rank

coastbylight

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Aug 8, 2025 04:00PM Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? -0.000057
    Aug 1, 2025 09:00PM Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? 0.010059
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? 0.0309
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? 0.0
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? -0.00061
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? -0.000604
    Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.058629
    Jul 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.0198
    Jul 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.002238
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? -0.000053
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? -0.004124
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.000005
    Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) 0.074106
    May 31, 2025 05:00PM On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? -0.074902
    Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025? -0.048655
    Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024? 0.024449
    Feb 4, 2025 05:00PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025) -0.008132
    Feb 2, 2025 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2025 and Feb 2, 2025) -0.0002
    Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? -0.196576
    Jan 28, 2025 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 28, 2024 and Jan 28, 2025) -0.0002
     
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