INFER Public

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 07:04AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	15%	-7%	-1%
No	92%	85%	+7%	+1%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 07:11AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Mar 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2024	Apr 29, 2024	17%	-12%	+4%
No	95%	Mar 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2024	Apr 29, 2024	83%	+12%	-4%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 07:15AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Mar 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Apr 29, 2024	26%	-17%	+15%
No	91%	Mar 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025	Apr 29, 2024	74%	+17%	-15%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(4 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 04:19AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(4 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 04:19AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 04:19AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
No	99%	96%	+3%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 04:22AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Mar 31, 2024 to Mar 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2024	9%	-7%	+2%
No	98%	Mar 31, 2024 to Mar 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2024	91%	+7%	-2%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 11:44PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024	Apr 30, 2024	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024	Apr 30, 2024	98%	+2%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024	Apr 30, 2024	9%	-4%	-2%
No	95%	Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024	Apr 30, 2024	91%	+4%	+2%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 02, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+0%

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