Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 05:28PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 05:28PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 50% | 15% | +35% | -5% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Georgia | 1% | 7% | -6% | +5% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 3% | -2% | +1% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(4 days ago)
May 03, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 13% | -7% | -1% |
| No | 94% | 87% | +7% | +1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)
May 03, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 16% | -11% | -1% |
| No | 95% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 84% | +11% | +1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)
May 03, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025 | Jun 3, 2024 | 21% | -12% | +0% |
| No | 91% | May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025 | Jun 3, 2024 | 79% | +12% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)
May 03, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:39PM UTC
(4 days ago)
May 03, 2024 08:39PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025 | Aug 3, 2024 | 6% | -4% | -2% |
| No | 98% | May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025 | Aug 3, 2024 | 94% | +4% | +2% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:41PM UTC
(4 days ago)
May 03, 2024 08:41PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 95% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 95% | +0% | +1% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:43PM UTC
(4 days ago)
May 03, 2024 08:43PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 10% | -7% | -1% |
| No | 97% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 90% | +7% | +1% |