INFER Public

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 06:33PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	18%	-13%	+5%
No	95%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	82%	+13%	-5%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 06:33PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	2%	-2%	-2%
No	100%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	98%	+2%	+2%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	Jul 20, 2024	7%	-2%	-2%
No	95%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	Jul 20, 2024	93%	+2%	+2%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	4%	+1%	-2%
No	95%	96%	-1%	+2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 06:36PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
Lithuania	0%	1%	-1%	-1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 05:28PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	50%	14%	+36%	-5%
Armenia	1%	1%	+0%	+1%
Georgia	1%	8%	-7%	+6%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+1%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024	Jun 3, 2024	12%	-7%	-4%
No	95%	May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024	Jun 3, 2024	88%	+7%	+4%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025	Jun 3, 2024	15%	-6%	-6%
No	91%	May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025	Jun 3, 2024	85%	+6%	+6%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	3%	-2%	-1%
No	99%	97%	+2%	+1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:39PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025	Aug 3, 2024	6%	-4%	-1%
No	98%	May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025	Aug 3, 2024	94%	+4%	+1%

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