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geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum
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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.001139
    Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? -0.000103
    Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.135685
    Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) -0.007258
    Jan 3, 2022 01:44PM What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? 0.123311
    Jan 3, 2022 01:41PM What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? 0.161359
    Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.102789
    Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? -0.015217
    Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? -0.014217
    Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.009579
    Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? 0.878726
    Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? 0.242987
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.006119
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.0
    Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021? -0.045664
    Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) 0.004683
    Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) 0.0
    Oct 1, 2021 06:31PM [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? 0.023094
    Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? 0.786189
    Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) 0.008874
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