98th
Accuracy Rank

geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum
About:

Global affairs consultant, former U.S. Foreign Service Officer. Served as a diplomat in London, Algiers, Istanbul, Vienna, Baghdad, Kabul, and WashDC. Worked on nuclear nonproliferation; counter-terrorism; Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan; European security; and emergint tech policy. Started Odlum Global Strategies consulting in 2018; Advisor with FedTech ; Board of Directors with Coalescion. Pro Forecaster since 2021.

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.000857
    Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) -0.001294
    Aug 9, 2022 08:00PM Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22? -0.017602
    Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023? 0.183666
    May 31, 2022 03:08PM Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? 0.311301
    May 25, 2022 02:09PM Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? 0.001222
    Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.001139
    Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? -0.000103
    Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.135685
    Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) -0.007258
    Jan 3, 2022 01:44PM What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? 0.123311
    Jan 3, 2022 01:41PM What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? 0.161359
    Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.102789
    Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? -0.015217
    Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? -0.014217
    Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.009579
    Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? 0.878726
    Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? 0.242987
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.006119
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.0
     
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