Forecasted Questions
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 07:54PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 12, 2024 07:54PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 12, 2024 to Apr 12, 2025 | Jul 12, 2024 | 14% | -9% | +10% |
| No | 95% | Apr 12, 2024 to Apr 12, 2025 | Jul 12, 2024 | 86% | +9% | -10% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 07:54PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 12, 2024 07:54PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 13% | -3% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 87% | +3% | +2% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 04:15PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Apr 19, 2024 04:15PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 19, 2024 to Oct 19, 2024 | May 19, 2024 | 3% | -2% | -2% |
| No | 99% | Apr 19, 2024 to Oct 19, 2024 | May 19, 2024 | 97% | +2% | +2% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 04:15PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Apr 19, 2024 04:15PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 19, 2024 to Oct 19, 2024 | May 19, 2024 | 3% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 99% | Apr 19, 2024 to Oct 19, 2024 | May 19, 2024 | 97% | +2% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 04:15PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Apr 19, 2024 04:15PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 96% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 04:52PM UTC
(2 days ago)
May 03, 2024 04:52PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 8% | +17% | +0% |
| No | 75% | 92% | -17% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 04:54PM UTC
(2 days ago)
May 03, 2024 04:54PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 96% | -1% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(2 days ago)
May 03, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(2 days ago)
May 03, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 3% | 2% | +1% | 0% |
| Oman | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Qatar | 3% | 2% | +1% | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 2% | 1% | +1% | 0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(2 days ago)
May 03, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 56% | +19% | +1% |
| No | 25% | 44% | -19% | -1% |