56th
Accuracy Rank

geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum
About:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/geoffodlum/
Global affairs consultant and former U.S. Foreign Service Officer. Served 28 years as a diplomat in London, Algiers, Istanbul, Vienna, Baghdad, Kabul, and the State Department in Washington. Worked on nuclear nonproliferation; emerging technologies; counter-terrorism; crisis management; Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan; European security; and energy geopolitics. Started a national security & technology policy consulting company (Odlum Global Strategies) in 2018, advising governments and companies on technology impacts on security, governance, and geopolitics.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2020 02:21AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 59% Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% Answer was correct
More than 80% Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2020 02:29AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $440 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $440 billion and $490 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $490 billion but less than or equal to $540 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $590 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $590 billion Answer was correct

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2020 02:45AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2020 02:50AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 675 Answer was correct
Between 675 and 750, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 750 but less than or equal to 825 Answer was incorrect
More than 825 but less than or equal to 900 Answer was incorrect
More than 900 Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2020 12:46AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 15% Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% Answer was incorrect
More than 21% Answer was incorrect

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2020 12:50AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 30,000 and 38,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 38,000 but less than or equal to 46,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 46,000 but less than or equal to 54,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 54,000 Answer was correct

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2020 01:16PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2020 10:43PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Nov 25, 2020 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2020 05:57PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Before November 25 Answer was correct
Between November 25 and December 22, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between December 23 and January 20, inclusive Answer was incorrect
After January 20 Answer was incorrect

What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 28, 2020 10:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.25 Answer was incorrect
Between 0.25 and 0.3, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 0.3 but less than or equal to 0.35 Answer was incorrect
More than 0.35 but less than or equal to 0.4 Answer was correct
More than 0.4 Answer was incorrect
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