What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?

Started Oct 09, 2020 12:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

Context. The ratio of trade to GDP -- sometimes referred to as "trade openness" -- is a common metric for how globally integrated a country's economy is. Comparisons between countries are complicated because a country's size and location affects its ratio. We're primarily interested in changes over time, e.g., if China becomes more economically isolated, its trade-to-GDP ratio should decrease.

This question has an analogue that asks about the trade-to-GDP ratio of countries that are a member of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), an intergovernmental organization whose members share a commitment to democracy and a market economy. The United States is a prominent member of the OECD. You can view the analogue question here.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on OECD data. GDP data is from OECD's Quarterly National Accounts database. It's calculated using the expenditure approach and the VNBQR measure: National currency (Yuan Renminbi), constant prices, national base year (2015), quarterly levels. We converted the GDP values to U.S. dollars at the December 31, 2015 exchange rate of 1 U.S. dollar = 6.5138 Chinese Yuan Renminbi. Trade data (imports and exports of goods) is from OECD's International Trade MEI dataset. It's measured in U.S. dollars. 

This question resolves when GDP and trade data are available through June 30, 2021. Based on the historical data release schedule, that will likely be mid-August 2021.

The data underlying the graph is here.

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Resolution Notes

The ratio is 0.353

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 0.25 4%
Between 0.25 and 0.3, inclusive 21%
More than 0.3 but less than or equal to 0.35 45%
More than 0.35 but less than or equal to 0.4 24%
More than 0.4 6%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Consensus Trend

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