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geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum
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Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2021 08:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 35%

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% 5% 7%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive 25% 23%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% 35% 33%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% 27% 21%
More than 8% 8% 16%

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2021 09:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than -0.25 20% 14%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive 35% 31%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 25% 33%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 15% 17%
More than 0.5 5% 4%

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2022 04:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Apple 45% 48%
Microsoft 25% 22%
Alphabet (Google) 15% 13%
Amazon 10% 10%
Tesla 5% 3%
Meta (Facebook) 0% 1%
Other 0% 2%

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2022 03:02PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Intel 30% 16%
Samsung 60% 53%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) 10% 30%
Other 0% 0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Apr 18, 2024 09:50PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2024 09:50PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Mar 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2024 Apr 18, 2024 1%
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