Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2021 08:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 27, 2021 08:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 35% | -32% | -5% |
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 2% | 5% | 7% | -2% | -1% |
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 25% | 23% | +2% | -1% |
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 35% | 33% | +2% | -1% |
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 27% | 21% | +6% | +0% |
More than 8% | 8% | 16% | -8% | +3% |
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2021 09:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 07, 2021 09:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than -0.25 | 20% | 14% | +6% | -2% |
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 35% | 31% | +4% | -1% |
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 25% | 33% | -8% | +2% |
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 15% | 17% | -2% | +0% |
More than 0.5 | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2022 04:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 10, 2022 04:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Apple | 45% | 48% | -3% | +14% |
Microsoft | 25% | 22% | +3% | +3% |
Alphabet (Google) | 15% | 13% | +2% | -3% |
Amazon | 10% | 10% | +0% | -6% |
Tesla | 5% | 3% | +2% | -4% |
Meta (Facebook) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -4% |
Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 26, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2022 03:02PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 27, 2022 03:02PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intel | 30% | 16% | +14% | -3% |
Samsung | 60% | 53% | +7% | -9% |
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) | 10% | 30% | -20% | +12% |
Other | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
As of Apr 18, 2024 09:50PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2024 09:50PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 18, 2024 09:50PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Mar 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2024 | Apr 18, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |