Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Started Apr 20, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC

China, which considers Taiwan an inviolable part its territory, has stated that while it seeks peaceful reunification, it is committed to returning Taiwan to the PRC “by any means necessary” and has threatened invasion if Taiwan declares independence (CFR, The Guardian, Reuters). Concerns about a conflict have heightened in recent weeks, as the People's Liberation Army, China’s armed forces, executed military drills simulating a blockade of Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen meeting with the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in Los Angeles (The Japan Times, Reuters). The threat of a blockade or invasion of Taiwan is a serious risk to the world economy (PC Gamer, Foreign Policy), and specifically to the global semiconductor supply chain, as Taiwan is home to 92% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity (Semiconductor Industry Association).

Resolution Criteria:  

This question will resolve using reputable news media reports. An invasion would entail an attempt by the People’s Liberation Army to land on, occupy, and/or capture the main island of Taiwan. A blockade would involve the use of ships or planes to prevent people and goods from entering or leaving Taiwan, thereby cutting off its access to the rest of the world. A blockade or invasion need not be successful for it to count towards the resolution of this question. For the purposes of this question, a military attack would require the use of weaponry by the People’s Liberation Army against a civillian or military target. A target on the main island of Taiwan must be hit for the attack to count towards resolution. Cyberattacks will not be considered towards the resolution of this question.

This question has ended, but is awaiting resolution by an admin.

Possible Answer Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.50%
No 99.50%
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