RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:02PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Jul 30, 2025 to Jan 30, 2026	Aug 30, 2025 12:02PM	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	Jul 30, 2025 to Jan 30, 2026	Aug 30, 2025 12:02PM	98%	-1%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:02PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Jul 30, 2025 to Jan 30, 2026	Aug 30, 2025 12:02PM	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Jul 30, 2025 to Jan 30, 2026	Aug 30, 2025 12:02PM	100%	+0%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:06PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	10%	8%	+2%	-1%
Not before 2026	88%	90%	-2%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:15PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	7%	10%	-3%	+1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:18PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	2%	9%	-7%	-3%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	86%	52%	+34%	+0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	10%	32%	-22%	+3%
More than or equal to 90	2%	6%	-4%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:22PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	5%	+15%	+0%
No	80%	95%	-15%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:23PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	7%	-5%	+0%
No	98%	93%	+5%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:23PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	55%	65%	-10%	+0%
30 days	5%	8%	-3%	+0%
31-60 days	5%	7%	-2%	+0%
61-90 days	5%	6%	-1%	+0%
91 days or more	30%	14%	+16%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:23PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	2%	8%	-6%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Georgia	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:23PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

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