RAND Forecasting Initiative

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 01:41PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
Not before 2026	98%	98%	+0%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 01:44PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	2%	6%	-4%	+0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 01:45PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
No	95%	97%	-2%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 01:45PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	7%	-5%	+0%
No	98%	93%	+5%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 01:45PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	79%	67%	+12%	+0%
30 days	5%	6%	-1%	+0%
31-60 days	3%	6%	-3%	+0%
61-90 days	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
91 days or more	10%	17%	-7%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 01:45PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	2%	6%	-4%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Georgia	1%	3%	-2%	-1%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 01:46PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 01:46PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	2%	+3%	+0%
No	95%	98%	-3%	+0%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2026 04:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 01:46PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	3%	10%	-7%	+0%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	5%	12%	-7%	+2%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	70%	71%	-1%	-4%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	14%	6%	+8%	+2%
More than or equal to 6,000	8%	1%	+7%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 02:05PM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026	Nov 30, 2025 02:05PM	1%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026	Nov 30, 2025 02:05PM	99%	-2%	+0%

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