RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 02:05PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Oct 30, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026	Nov 30, 2025 02:05PM	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	Oct 30, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026	Nov 30, 2025 02:05PM	98%	-1%	+0%

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 02:20PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	25%	15%	+10%	+2%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	60%	36%	+24%	+4%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	10%	14%	-4%	-3%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	3%	12%	-9%	-3%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	2%	24%	-22%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 02:38PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	1%	2%	-1%	-1%
Not before 2026	99%	98%	+1%	+1%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 02:47PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 03:00PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	22%	-12%	-6%
No	90%	78%	+12%	+6%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 03:08PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	5%	6%	-1%	-5%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	90%	93%	-3%	+5%
More than or equal to 74%	5%	0%	+5%	+0%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 03:23PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	85%	38%	+47%	-3%
No	15%	62%	-47%	+3%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 03:45PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	78%	68%	+10%	+8%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	14%	24%	-10%	-5%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	5%	6%	-1%	-2%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 04:01PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion	5%	6%	-1%	-1%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion	40%	49%	-9%	+3%
€30 billion or more	55%	44%	+11%	-2%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 1, 2025 12:01AM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	10%	24%	-14%	+3%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	30%	43%	-13%	+1%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	40%	25%	+15%	-3%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	15%	7%	+8%	-2%
More than or equal to $800 million	5%	2%	+3%	+0%

o-maverick

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