Forecasted Questions
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 03:35PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 03:35PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 75% | 15% | +60% | +6% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 04:38PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 04:38PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 28% | -8% | -2% |
| No | 80% | 72% | +8% | +2% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:07PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 09:07PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026 | Aug 31, 2025 09:07PM | 33% | +22% | +1% |
| No | 45% | Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026 | Aug 31, 2025 09:07PM | 67% | -22% | -1% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 5% | 9% | -4% | +1% |
| Not before 2026 | 95% | 89% | +6% | -1% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 70% | 65% | +5% | +0% |
| 30 days | 15% | 7% | +8% | -1% |
| 31-60 days | 3% | 7% | -4% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 7% | 16% | -9% | +1% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +0% |
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 62% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% | 2% | 0% | +2% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% | 28% | 22% | +6% | -2% |
| More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% | 68% | 78% | -10% | +2% |
| More than or equal to 74% | 2% | 0% | +2% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | 0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | 0% | +0% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 57% | +3% | -5% |
| No | 40% | 43% | -3% | +5% |
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 31, 2025 09:28PM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 10% | 7% | +3% | +0% |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 20% | 17% | +3% | -12% |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 30% | 45% | -15% | +1% |
| €30 billion or more | 30% | 30% | +0% | +11% |